Beancounters at TrendForce have added up some numbers and divided by their shoe size and reached the conclusion that prices will rise by between 18 and 23 per cent, up from an earlier prediction of 8 to 13 per cent.

It appears that AI stampede is now hammering the smartphone market. Datacentres are guzzling high-bandwidth memory (HBM) at a rate that has left wafer capacity stretched thin.

TrendForce said global cloud service providers are expanding at speed, pushing high-performance computing platforms that have created what it called a “structural supply shortage.”

The surge in HBM demand has consumed much of the available wafer capacity, since HBM dies are 35 to 45 per cent larger than comparable DRAM. That imbalance is forcing production cuts elsewhere, and smartphone-focused memory such as LPDDR5X is bearing the brunt.

TrendForce added that DDR5 contract prices are set to keep rising through 2026, especially during the first half of the year. HBM prices could ease slightly next year as competition increases and inventories recover, but the profitability of DDR5 and LPDDR5X is expected to surpass that of HBM3E by early 2026.

Xiaomi president Lu Weibing recently admitted on Weibo that his firm “cannot change the trend of global supply chains, and the rise in storage costs is much higher than expected and will continue to increase.”

The warning reflects growing concern among smartphone manufacturers struggling to manage rising component costs.

The price pressure is hitting chip designers. MediaTek is preparing to shift to 2nm production just as TSMC is reportedly charging as much as $30,000 (about €27,700) for a single wafer. With DDR5 delivery times now stretching between 26 and 39 weeks, the industry is straining to keep up.

LPDDR5X, the efficient sibling of standard DRAM used in smartphones, tablets and ultrathin laptops, is now at the centre of the storm. Manufacturers such as Xiaomi and Samsung are weighing price increases for upcoming models in 2026 to offset soaring memory costs.